THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF VIETNAM – UAE CEPA ON VIETNAM'S FRUITS AND NUTS EXPORTS IN THE CONTEXT OF HALAL ECONOMIC AND TRADE DEVELOPMENT

Abstract

The paper aims to estimate to what extent the Vietnam – UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (Vietnam – UAE CEPA), would influence Vietnam's fruit and nut exports to the UAE. Two scenarios are developed by the UAE's trade liberalization, focusing on Asian countries, including Vietnam. The positive effect of the assumed Vietnam – UAE CEPA on Vietnam's exports would be found in both two scenarios, according to the SMART model results. However, the UAE's deeper engagement with other countries would cause a remarkable decrease in the export turnover of Vietnam's commodities, leading to some short-term and long-term recommendations of the authors to promote Vietnam's exports of fruits and nuts in general and cashew nuts (shelled) in particular not only to the UAE but also worldwide. To develop sustainably in the field of exporting Halal agricultural products, Vietnam needs to take measures to improve the competitiveness of fruits and nuts in this market.