Tourism-Driven Urban Transformation and Business Ecosystem Changes in Heritage Cities: A Mixed-Methods Analysis of Cartagena's Historic District (2015-2023)

Abstract

This research analyzed the effects of tourism growth on local business ecosystems in Cartagena's historic district from 2015 to 2023. The study measured relationships between tourism indicators and business composition changes through multiple statistical procedures. The methodology integrated regression analysis, difference-in-differences estimation, and vector autoregression modeling to test hypotheses about tourism-driven transformation. Data collection included business registration records, commercial rent prices, employment patterns, and tourism metrics from municipal databases and field surveys. The research established spatial patterns of business transformation, with high-tourism zones experiencing stronger effects than low-tourism areas. Multiple regression results indicated that tourist arrivals and expenditure patterns predicted business ecosystem changes (R² = 0.78-0.82), while difference-in-differences analysis found increased business turnover rates in high-tourism zones (14 percentage points) compared to low-tourism zones (4 percentage points). Vector autoregression modeling identified two-quarter lag effects of tourism growth on business composition changes (F = 8.624, p = 0.003). The findings extended existing theoretical frameworks through analysis of transformation processes in Latin American heritage contexts. The results supported policy development for sustainable tourism management while highlighting unique characteristics of business adaptation in colonial urban environments.