The Role of Strategic Foresight in Healthcare Crisis Management: A Theoretical Analysis

Abstract

This research explores the role of strategic foresight in healthcare crisis management, focusing on its capacity to enhance preparedness, responsiveness, and adaptability within healthcare systems. The study adopts a qualitative methodological approach, relying on the analysis of secondary data from scholarly literature published between 2010 and 2025. The methodology incorporates a comprehensive literature review, conceptual model development, and thematic analysis, all guided by ethical considerations. Key concepts of strategic foresight, such as environmental scanning, horizon scanning, scenario planning, and anticipatory governance, are examined to establish their relevance and interconnectedness in healthcare crisis management. The conceptual model developed in this study illustrates how these foresight components operate as an integrated framework to improve healthcare system resilience.
The results of the research demonstrate that scenario planning and anticipatory governance have the most significant impact on crisis management outcomes. Scenario planning enables healthcare leaders to visualize multiple possible futures and develop adaptable crisis response strategies. Anticipatory governance facilitates agile policy adjustments to address emerging health threats, exemplified during the COVID-19 pandemic. The results also reveal the transformative role of technology, particularly predictive analytics and artificial intelligence, in enhancing foresight capacities. By leveraging technological tools, healthcare organizations can detect early warning signals and make data-driven decisions to manage crises more effectively.
The research concludes that strategic foresight is essential for strengthening healthcare crisis management. Its proactive approach allows healthcare institutions to move beyond reactive responses, ensuring greater flexibility and preparedness for future crises. The study recommends the institutionalization of foresight practices, investment in capacity-building programs, and the integration of digital technologies to enhance foresight-driven decision-making. These actions will enable healthcare systems to become more agile, adaptive, and capable of responding to complex health emergencies.